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Forum:2012 Pacific hurricane season
July 04E.DANIEL 96E.INVEST Whoa, that was quick. Currently at 10%, but the models don't go as crazy as I expected with this. Might be a hurricane, but that's about it. SHIPS only peaks this at 70 knots in the far future. Then again, that was the same kind of prediction they made for Eugene last year and look what happened...There's another low that could come behind this and explode in the next 3-4 days though. EPac's starting to ramp up. Ryan1000 13:58, July 2, 2012 (UTC) I say at least a cat 2 Allanjeffs 15:34, July 2, 2012 (UTC) :Yep, this blew up and looks really good. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 15:51, July 2, 2012 (UTC) ::Now up to 30% --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 17:52, July 2, 2012 (UTC) ::::It seems every storm named Daniel wants to be a long-lived major threatening Hawaii. This one probrably will too, in the long run, but I don't think it will make it to the islands themselves. Ryan1000 21:23, July 2, 2012 (UTC) ::::Probably will be our second major of the year and I say ex 97L in the Atlantic will develop in the pacific and will become Emilia.Allanjeffs 22:31, July 2, 2012 (UTC) :::: I have a question by any chance can someone give me a link to the 2006 and 2005 hurricane seasonal discussion that I can`t find it. thanks Allanjeffs 00:12, July 3, 2012 (UTC) :::: Its on the Wikipedia talk pages. 00:21, July 3, 2012 (UTC) ::::Can you give me the link please.Allanjeffs 00:52, July 3, 2012 (UTC) :::::Allan, see the archives on the talk page of the wikipedia pages. Here is the talk page of 2005. Just scroll down a bit and you'll see a monthly and storm event archives at the bottom part of the orange-colored talk page header. Do the same with 2006's Talk page. You'll see the archives. And yeah, after this one, the models pick up on another storm coming into EPac 3-4 days out, possibly exploding into a major, like Daniel-to be is expected to. SHIPS doesn't take this storm to hurricane intensity right now, but intensity forecasting has been off with some EPac storms. They require less energy to intensify since most of them are small in size. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a C4 out of this, like in 2006. Ryan1000 02:33, July 3, 2012 (UTC) ::::::thanks Ryan I agree probable Daniel and Emilia will be majors.Allanjeffs 03:58, July 3, 2012 (UTC) :::::::Aside from Hawaii, which both may threaten in the long run, there's nothing else going on. They'll probrably be fish storms. None of the models foresee development from anything in the Atlantic for the next week and WPac also seems to be silent. Ryan1000 05:19, July 3, 2012 (UTC) ::::::::Yeah, the models are pretty consistent with this heading out way to the west. But they seem to be less aggresive then usual. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 14:54, July 3, 2012 (UTC) ::::::::::50%!Cyclone10 15:42, July 3, 2012 (UTC) ::::::::::I think this will be one of those unexpected C4 surprises. AndrewTalk To Me 17:23, July 3, 2012 (UTC) And we're up to 80%! And yeah, I was thinking the same thing. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 17:41, July 3, 2012 (UTC) Daniel is coming and they are forecasting a stronger Emilia right now.Allanjeffs 17:59, July 3, 2012 (UTC) And Ryan the WPac is not thatquiet there is a medium percent chance of a formation of a tropical cyclone near the Phillippines.Allanjeffs 18:02, July 3, 2012 (UTC) Definitely going to become Daniel. AndrewTalk To Me 18:06, July 3, 2012 (UTC) I know there are some storms near Luzon that may organize into a TS, but it won't be that strong if it does so. Ryan1000 18:33, July 3, 2012 (UTC) Should become a tropical depression later today... and watch for the disturbance behind it too. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 20:02, July 3, 2012 (UTC) probably will be td 4E at 11pmAllanjeffs 21:32, July 3, 2012 (UTC) 90% here comes Daniel.Allanjeffs 23:38, July 3, 2012 (UTC) Anytime now, 96E. And yeah, Emilia will follow behind Daniel in the next few days. Ryan1000 03:21, July 4, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression Four-E It's here. NHC doesn't even expect this to be a hurricane, though. Ryan1000 09:54, July 4, 2012 (UTC) I think it will become a hurricane, despite its conditions ahead. 12:55, July 4, 2012 (UTC) I believe Four-E will pull an Adrian/Eugene/Kenneth and become at least a Category 3, but I have high expectations of this becoming a Category 5. AndrewTalk To Me 13:07, July 4, 2012 (UTC) :I expect a C2 out of this.Cyclone10 13:54, July 4, 2012 (UTC) ::The models are really conservative on this one. Unfortunately I don't know the reason however. HWRF is pretty agressive with 4E. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 13:58, July 4, 2012 (UTC) :::At most, the only thing I see from this system is 70-75 kt Cat 1, based on pure gut feeling and climatology. I'm too lazy to look at the models right now. Darren23[[User:Darren23/Cyclone Warning Center|'CWC']] 14:43, July 4, 2012 (UTC) :::::I guess the models really think it will be slow to organize, or think it won't be in very favorable conditions 3-4 days out. Ryan1000 17:17, July 4, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Daniel What, did everyone give up on 4E? LOL. Anyway, we finally have Daniel. The 8am advisory says 45 mph, 1002 mbar. Forecast to peak at 70 mph. --HurricaneMaker99 15:22, July 5, 2012 (UTC) : 45 mph? You have to admit, that strucutre looks really good for any minimal tropical storm. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 16:11, July 5, 2012 (UTC) ::Yeah, I guess it does. I'm probably not nearly as good at this as you are, but I'd fancy a guess of 60 mph, 65 tops. --HurricaneMaker99 17:13, July 5, 2012 (UTC) ::I still have high confidence in Daniel becoming a hurricane (at least a weak Category 1, but maybe a Category 2/3). AndrewTalk To Me 17:19, July 5, 2012 (UTC) : Daniel looks excellent in rainbow top image should be up to 60 imo.Allanjeffs 17:20, July 5, 2012 (UTC) ::That's what the ATCF says. --HurricaneMaker99 19:16, July 5, 2012 (UTC) ::::About time, it was a depression for a while. I still strongly believe we will see a hurricane from Daniel, but I'm not so convinced about major hurricane strength now. Ryan1000 19:21, July 5, 2012 (UTC) :::::It already has a true eye. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 19:31, July 5, 2012 (UTC) :::::Daniel its on its way on becoming the third hurricane of the season andI think that is the gfs but it is forecasting Emilia and Fabio if the NAHS want to be on pair with the eastern pacific it need to hurry up.Allanjeffs 20:10, July 5, 2012 (UTC) :::::::There is a high chance of Daniel becoming a hurricane, though it won't be affecting land anyways. Nothing else seems to be brewing. The MJO is currently stalling over the NIO, but nothing's developing there because this isn't the ideal time of year for storms to develop there. El Nino conditions are starting to arrive, but we're not officially in El Nino yet. We will be by September/October, but that doesn't mean ATL won't be able to produce a significant storm by then. A little off-topic, but the record heat wave, even where I am in Michigan, hasn't stopped, as the midwest hit 100 degree temps in many places over the past few days. That ridge of high pressure over the central U.S. is almost inpenetrable. We've had some rain every now and then, but still. Ryan1000 01:07, July 6, 2012 (UTC) The latest ATCF bumps Daniel up to 55 kts, but based on the satellite imagery, I think Daniel should be a hurricane in the next 12 hours. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 01:24, July 6, 2012 (UTC) I agree, it will probrably be upgraded soon. I'm surprised it's not one now, it really looks the part, but it's winds probrably haven't reflected it's appearance yet. Ryan1000 04:54, July 6, 2012 (UTC) ::Looks like it never became a hurricane all night, but recently they've bumped it to 70 mph. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 15:00, July 6, 2012 (UTC) ::Now Dry air is entering the system if Daniel doesn`t become a system today then maybe he will never become a hurricane after al.Allanjeffs 20:11, July 6, 2012 (UTC) :::Relax, Daniel has 24 hours left. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 21:37, July 6, 2012 (UTC) :::::I thought he would be much stronger. I was wrong. 75-80 mph isn't out of the question, but that's it. 'Ryan1000' 23:16, July 6, 2012 (UTC) :::::Me too looks like this Daniel would not be a strong system after all But I think Emilia is a different story.Allanjeffs 23:35, July 6, 2012 (UTC) ::::::I can see an eye starting to take shape. Earlier today I was skeptical about Daniel becoming a hurricane, but it looks like I could be wrong. He probably won't go any further than a C1, but I'd predict a peak around 75 mph, 80 tops. --HurricaneMaker99 23:48, July 6, 2012 (UTC) Hurricane Daniel Yep, now it's a hurricane with winds of 75mph and a pressure of 988 mbar.Supportstorm 01:10, July 7, 2012 (UTC) the third hurricane of the Eastern north pacific has come to us base on the ATCF files.EP, 04, 2012070700, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1164W, 65, 988, HU.Allanjeffs 01:12, July 7, 2012 (UTC) :I think creating a new header is jumping the gun a bit - remember Katia in the ATL last year, and how the ATCF upgraded it to a hurricane but the NHC didn't follow suit? I would have waited until we had official word from the NHC, but I won't remove the header unless the 8 pm advisory keeps Daniel as a tropical storm. --HurricaneMaker99 01:24, July 7, 2012 (UTC) ::The RBT is from the NHC. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 02:36, July 7, 2012 (UTC) :::Really? Huh. Thanks for the info. Anyway, it's official now. Daniel's a hurricane. --HurricaneMaker99 02:51, July 7, 2012 (UTC) ::::Yeah. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 02:56, July 7, 2012 (UTC) ::::::He'll probrably peak here, or maybe become an 80-85 mph hurricane before weakening sometime tomorow. 'Ryan1000' 07:50, July 7, 2012 (UTC) ::::::now 80 may peak at 90 or a minimal cat 2.Allanjeffs 08:42, July 7, 2012 (UTC) :::::::A bit stronger as of the 8 am advisory. 85 mph, 980 mbar. The discussion says that if this isn't Daniel's peak intensity, then it's very close. --HurricaneMaker99 14:50, July 7, 2012 (UTC) Wow... I had thought it had peaked earlier because of dry air. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 15:38, July 7, 2012 (UTC) :Well, I guess it was resilient. I can see Daniel peaking at around 90 mph, but I don't expect a Category 2 out of him. He certainly looks better today than he did yesterday - that eye I mentioned earlier is becoming a bit more pronounced, I think. And by the way, unless Daniel suddenly Eugenes out at the last second, this will be the first ''minor Hurricane Daniel. The 1988 and 1994 Daniels failed to reach hurricane strength, but the 1978, 1982, 2000, and 2006 Daniels were all major hurricanes, with 2006's Daniel - the last time this list was used - peaking as a strong Category 4. I think Ryan already explained these before, but I can't find that post in this thread. --HurricaneMaker99 17:13, July 7, 2012 (UTC) :I think Daniel is a cat 2.Allanjeffs 18:08, July 7, 2012 (UTC) :EP, 04, 2012070718, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1196W, 80, 977, HU,, up to 90mph Allanjeffs 18:27, July 7, 2012 (UTC) :EP, 04, 2012070718, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1196W, 80, 977, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 15, 0, 20, This is Daniel's peak intensity. ''' 18:28, July 7, 2012 (UTC) This is likely Daniel's peak (unless he pulls a Wilma or Eugene). --AndrewTalk To Me 21:47, July 7, 2012 (UTC) Actually he is strengthening I say he is a cat 2 now he may peak at 105mph.Allanjeffs 00:34, July 8, 2012 (UTC) And ATCF files agree with meEP, 04, 2012070800, , BEST, 0, 148N, 1207W, 90, 969, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 15, 25, 1007, 180, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DANIEL, D,.Allanjeffs 00:36, July 8, 2012 (UTC) :Daniel looks very nice on satellite, too http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep201204_sat.html. Maybe we'll have to wait for a C<3 Hurricane Daniel. --HurricaneMaker99 01:04, July 8, 2012 (UTC) :::@HM99: I mentioned Daniel's intensities in the June archive (or Carlotta's archive) before. Yeah, it could bomb unexpectedly in the last second like Eugene, but it's now or never. It may weaken soon, rather than strengthen, but we'll see. ''Ryan1000'' 01:12, July 8, 2012 (UTC) ::::Thanks, found it (93E thread). And now that Wunderground's switched to infrared for the overnight hours, I see what could be a bit of dry air entrainment. Could I be right? --HurricaneMaker99 01:24, July 8, 2012 (UTC) Wow, it continues to strengthen despite forecasts. Dvorak numbers are already at 110 mph. --'''CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 01:17, July 8, 2012 (UTC) :Whoa, I might have been wrong about that dry air. Daniel looks excellent on infrared; Wunderground is showing a clear eye with a nice ring of pink trying to enclose itself around the eyewall. There's even a hint of white in there! And another thing I've noticed is that whenever I predict Daniel will peak, he seems determined to outperform my expectations. When I was skeptical that Daniel would become a hurricane, he did just that. When I said that I expected him to stay below Category 2 strength, he hit 105 mph a few hours later. What if I came out and said, "there's no way in hell Daniel will become a Category 5?" :P --HurricaneMaker99 04:17, July 8, 2012 (UTC) :I think Daniel will have a shot of reaching major hurricane status.Allanjeffs 05:31, July 8, 2012 (UTC) Major Hurricane Daniel Another storm that did the impossible...115 mph and 961 mbars. Looks like the 1988 and 1994 Daniels remain the only Daniels not to become (major) hurricanes. Ryan1000 08:54, July 8, 2012 (UTC) The stories of last year's major hurricanes are repeating. Also, my forecast took Daniel to a Category 5. This might become true... AndrewTalk To Me 11:56, July 8, 2012 (UTC) :I highly doubt that. This will likely be Daniel's peak intensity. It may get up to 120 mph, but I think this will be where Daniel will stop. From here on out, it should be weakening. It will probrably only be a depression when it passes south of Hawaii. Emilia will follow in Daniel's footsteps, possibly being stronger when it nears Hawaii, but no storm has ever struck Hawaii from the east as a well-defined hurricane. Many have threatened to do so, but none have done so. No hurricanes have struck any Hawaian island except Kauai (Iniki and Dot made landfall there, Iwa brushed by Kauai). Ryan1000 12:38, July 8, 2012 (UTC) ::Its still supposed to weaken at a fast clip after its off the spotlight, but, wow, what a storm this is. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 13:49, July 8, 2012 (UTC) ::Hurricane Daniel reminds me of Chris a bit...as they both did not stop strengthening. I think Chris's peak intensity was a little conseratative, meaning Chris and Daniel may have peaked at around the same intensities. 14:24, July 8, 2012 (UTC) ::The difference between Chris and Daniel (for me) is that Chris's intensity took me by surprise, but I had forecasted Daniel would be a major hurricane since it was an invest. AndrewTalk To Me 14:48, July 8, 2012 (UTC) :: Hurricane Daniel (2nd time) Also, Daniel's time as a major is done. AndrewTalk To Me 14:49, July 8, 2012 (UTC) 05E.EMILIA AOI:Near Costa Rica Here comes the pre invest 97 E future Emilia is at 10% now and will probably be a major.Allanjeffs 05:43, July 4, 2012 (UTC) I only forecast this AOI to become a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1. AndrewTalk To Me 13:09, July 4, 2012 (UTC) : The models have been on to this one for a while. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 13:59, July 4, 2012 (UTC) ::: This has a better chance of being stronger than Daniel (four-e) may, but less than a C5. Ryan1000 17:17, July 4, 2012 (UTC) ::: Down to 10%Allanjeffs 18:40, July 5, 2012 (UTC) 97E.INVEST Invested and up to 30%. The models are pretty straightforward with this thing. They're more agressive with this than they are with Daniel, but like Daniel, they keep it out to sea. Emilia is coming soon... Ryan1000 13:30, July 6, 2012 (UTC) : Looks about as good as any strong developing system. Should become Emilia in a short time. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 14:56, July 6, 2012 (UTC) ::: 50% Cyclone10 18:01, July 6, 2012 (UTC) ::: up to 60% here comes future Emilia.Allanjeffs 23:51, July 6, 2012 (UTC) ::: Can't wait to see it! AndrewTalk To Me 02:39, July 7, 2012 (UTC) ::::: As of now, the models don't seem any more enthusiastic with this than they were with Daniel. It may peak as an 85-90 mph storm in the future, but none of them expect Emilia-to be to become a major, ect. However, intensity forecasts with Pacific hurricanes aren't always accurate. Last year showed us some really good examples of that, especially with Eugene and Kenneth. Ryan1000 08:03, July 7, 2012 (UTC) ::::: Up to 80%! Easily can become Tropical Depression Five-E. AndrewTalk To Me 12:26, July 7, 2012 (UTC) Up to near 100%. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 17:37, July 7, 2012 (UTC) Close to becoming Tropical Depression Five-E now. 18:29, July 7, 2012 (UTC) It already has the appeareance that it would become a hurricane I think pre Emilia would be a major.Allanjeffs 18:31, July 7, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression Five-E invest_RENUMBER_ep972012_ep052012.ren its here and expect it to become a ts soon.Allanjeffs 19:10, July 7, 2012 (UTC) ::Yes!--Cyclone10 19:16, July 7, 2012 (UTC) :::A lot of people are saying that this will rapidly intensify. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 19:36, July 7, 2012 (UTC) ::::Hello, 05E. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 19:53, July 7, 2012 (UTC) :::::I predict a cat 3 or 4 as peak it has 2/3 chances of RI.Allanjeffs 20:32, July 7, 2012 (UTC) ::::::The NHC takes it to a C2, but a major hurricane isn't out of the question. AndrewTalk To Me 21:44, July 7, 2012 (UTC) :::::::It's quite likely actually. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 21:56, July 7, 2012 (UTC)ç Tropical Storm Emilia :::::::We have ts Emilia base on ATCF files.EP, 05, 2012070800, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1025W, 35, 1003, TS.Allanjeffs 00:38, July 8, 2012 (UTC) :::::::::It may intensify into a hurricane, but i'm not convinced it will explode yet. It is heading right behind Daniel and Daniel's outflow could hinder intensification in the long run. It looks just like Daniel was when it was invested, and NHC's SHIPS model, as I said earlier, isn't any more enthusiastic with 5-e than it was with Daniel. Then again, it could explode at the last minute, of course. It's too far out to tell. 'Ryan1000' 01:17, July 8, 2012 (UTC) The SHIPS is giving Emilia an awfully high chance of RI, in fact, the numbers are: 90% for 20 kt, 73% for 30 kt, and 63% for 35/40 kt. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 01:20, July 8, 2012 (UTC)\ : What's most surprising to me is SHIPS is actually the most generous of the models. Normally they're the most conservative. They must really like Emilia, though initially I don't. 'Ryan1000' 01:24, July 8, 2012 (UTC) ::Now official from NHC. Forecast to peak as a Category 2. --HurricaneMaker99 04:08, July 8, 2012 (UTC) ::And our next hurricane and probable a major a major in a couple of days. ::::More surprises. Emilia will likely follow in Daniels footsteps and remain at sea. 'Ryan1000' 08:54, July 8, 2012 (UTC) :::::This is year is developing into one heck of a year... SAB numbers for Emilia are already and 3.0, although the floater i not up yet. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 13:52, July 8, 2012 (UTC) :::::Now up to 50 mph. AndrewTalk To Me 14:49, July 8, 2012 (UTC) Retirements at a Glance Here's mine: *Aletta - 0% - Not even close. *Bud - 5% - It brought beneficial rain. *Carlotta - 7% - Wasn't that much damage. *Daniel - ? --Cyclone10 16:14, July 5, 2012 (UTC) Mine: *Aletta - 0% - It was a fun pre-season storm to follow, but had no impact on land. *Bud - 2% - Fun storm to follow, but not enough damage. *Carlotta - 5% - Killed two girls. *Daniel - TBA - Still Active *Emilia - TBA - Still Active AndrewTalk To Me 11:08, May 20, 2012 (UTC) : Mine ::: Aletta- 0% have fun tracking you. thanks to heat the tropics my darling. ::: Bud-2% at least pass near Mexico and the first major of the season but Bud, the card that you pull near the coast make your chances of retirement come down and really down. ::: Carlotta15% 3 deaths but she didn`t cause enormous so she is staying. ::: Daniel??? ::: Allanjeffs 21:18, July 3, 2012 (UTC) * Aletta - 0% - Early kickoff to the seson, but no impact, so no retirement. * Bud - 3% - Sorry, Buddy, but that's all I can give you. * Carlotta - 10% - It caused some impacts in Mexico, but it definitely wasn't severe enough for retirement. * Daniel - 0% - I doubt it will affect land. 'Ryan1000' 16:23, May 26, 2012 (UTC) '''CobraStrike:' *Aletta - 0% - No impacts, and a weak storm. *Bud - 2% - Bud pulled a Don at landfall, caused some issues, but dissipated so quickly it wasn't a problem. *Carlotta - 6% - Caused 2 fatalities and widespread flooding, but the impacts were not large enough to support a retirement. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 18:35, June 19, 2012 (UTC)